By Professor Douglas BOATENG 

Historically, the lighthouse stood as a towering figure, directing the lost towards shores abundant with opportunities.

At present, its illumination wanes, diminished by the encumbrance of barriers, constraints, and trepidation.

For numerous decades, the United States epitomised economic accessibility, innovation, and affluence. It was a nation where talent emanating from every corner of the globe contributed to the establishment of industries and the shaping of the future.

The unrestricted exchange of ideas, capital, and populations propelled advancement not solely for America but for the entire world. However, a notable transformation has occurred. Borders are becoming increasingly restricted.

Trade is contracting. Protectionist measures are eroding decades of globalisation. Economic nationalism is superseding collective growth.

This alteration does not just influence the world’s leading economies; it is reshaping the futures of all nations, including those in Africa. If the continent fails to adopt a strategic approach, it risks being marginalised.

On the other hand, if it can come together and negotiate as a cohesive entity, Africa has the potential to seize this moment as an unparalleled opportunity.

The walls are rising, and the world is shrinking

When rivers are dammed, lands downstream wither. When major economies turn inward, the world’s future contracts. For decades, globalisation drove growth, linking economies across continents. Today, a retreat from openness threatens to reverse that progress.

Example: The United States turns from openness to protectionism

The U.S., once the champion of free trade, is shifting towards economic isolation:

• Tech restrictions on China are stifling global innovation, affecting AI, semiconductors, and biotech.
• Tariffs and economic nationalism are increasing costs for businesses and consumers.
• Stricter immigration policies are diverting global talent elsewhere.

This shift has led to slower economic growth, declining global partnerships, and a waning influence on world trade.

Example: The European Union’s increasing borders

The EU, once the poster child for integration, is now tightening restrictions:

• Stronger immigration controls limit skilled labour mobility.
• Nationalistic economic policies prioritise internal industries over global competition.
• Political instability discourages long-term investment.

As protectionism grows, the global economy suffers. According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), global trade growth slowed from roughly 5.7percent in 2021 to approximately 3percent in 2023, signalling a clear retreat from openness.

The price of isolation: a world slowing down

When major economies retreat, everyone feels the impact:

• Slower global trade leads to higher consumer prices and business costs.
• Restricted research collaboration slows scientific advancements.
• Economic uncertainty causes stock market volatility and reduced investments.

The result? A weaker, less connected world.

Africa at a crossroads: risk or opportunity?

“When elephants fight, the grass suffers.” But what if the grass learns to grow stronger?

Africa faces a turning point. If the continent remains fragmented, it will be at the mercy of shifting global alliances. But if it presents a unified front in negotiations, Africa can leverage its resources, population, and markets to secure better deals.

1. Trade and investment: strength in unity

Historically, Africa has relied on foreign investment. However:

• In 2023, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Africa fell to US$45 billion, down from a 2021 record high, representing 3.5percent of global FDI.
• African exports face higher tariffs and restrictions in Western markets.

A fragmented Africa faces challenges in securing favourable terms. In contrast, a unified Africa, through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), can become a powerful global economic force. Successful AfCFTA implementation could boost intra-African trade and reduce dependence on external markets.

Beyond intra-African trade, a cohesive African strategy would enable the continent to negotiate as a unified entity with significant global economic powers, including the United States, the European Union, China, and emerging trade blocs in Asia and Latin America. Should Africa fail to adopt this approach, individual nations will be compelled to navigate trade challenges independently, competing for limited resources rather than obtaining substantial trade advantages.

Moreover, Africa’s vast natural resources, from critical minerals to agricultural commodities, put the continent in a strong position to dictate favourable terms. Individually, countries like Ghana, Nigeria, or Kenya may struggle to stand their ground in global negotiations, but collectively, a unified Africa would be impossible to ignore.

2. Technology and innovation – a collective bargaining power

Africa’s digital economy is booming, but global restrictions pose risks:

• Visa and work permit policies limit African tech talent’s access to global hubs.
• Tech trade restrictions on China impact Africa’s access to affordable digital infrastructure.

Instead of depending on fragmented deals, Africa must negotiate as a bloc to ensure fair access to technology, patents, and global digital markets. The continent is home to some of the fastest-growing fintech, AI, and software startups, yet African companies remain at the mercy of tech policies dictated by the West or China. By negotiating as one, Africa could demand better access to technology transfer agreements, research collaborations, and fairer digital trade regulations.

3. Food security and supply chains – building resilience together

With fragmented global supply chains, Africa faces rising costs for essentials:

• According to Statista, Africa imported 54.8 million metric tons of wheat in 2020/2021. Just under 50percent went to Sub-Saharan Africa, while the remainder went to Northern Africa. Geopolitical tensions and war between Ukraine and Russia have affected the supply chain
• Increased freight and import costs make food and medicine more expensive.

A unified Africa can drive regional self-sufficiency, negotiating collective trade agreements to reduce dependency on external supply chains.

Additionally, Africa’s vast arable land and favourable climate conditions position it as a potential global agricultural powerhouse. However, individual African countries lack bargaining power in international food markets. Through collective action, the continent can develop sustainable food production strategies, reduce dependence on foreign imports, and turn itself into a net food exporter rather than an import-dependent region.

Groceries

A new dawn or a missed opportunity?

A child born today in Africa faces two futures:

1. A fragmented Africa, where 54 nations negotiate separately, facing economic marginalisation.
2. A united Africa, where the continent speaks as one, securing trade, investment, and technology access on favourable terms.

The numbers speak for themselves: A single African market could create a combined GDP of US$3.4 trillion, unlocking unprecedented economic growth. But without a unified approach, Africa risks being sidelined in emerging global trade blocs.

Conclusion – Speak as one, not as 54

“When the sun sets on an era of progress, only those who prepare for the night will see the dawn.” The world is retreating into protectionism, but Africa does not have to be a passive observer. The continent has a choice: remain divided and be dictated to, or unite and shape its own economic destiny.

To compete in this new world, Africa must not negotiate as 54 fragmented nations but as one economic power. Whether securing trade agreements, attracting investment, or shaping technology policies, a single African voice will carry far more weight than dozens of separate whispers. History has shown that economic blocs shape global trade.

The EU, ASEAN, and NAFTA all negotiated from positions of unity. Africa must do the same. The AfCFTA provides the framework now; leadership and commitment must follow.

The time to act is now

• Global shifts are happening rapidly. If Africa waits too long, decisions will be made without it.
• A divided Africa is a weak Africa. A unified continent will command better deals, fairer trade terms, and greater global influence.
• Resources alone won’t secure Africa’s future. Strategic unity and bold leadership will.

If Africa does not take action now, global decisions will be made without its involvement. The moment has arrived for the continent to assert its destiny: united, not divided.

>>>the writer is a globally celebrated thought leader, Chartered Director, industrial engineer, supply chain management expert, and social entrepreneur known for his transformative contributions to industrialisation, procurement, and strategic sourcing in developing nations.

As Africa’s first Professor Extraordinaire for Supply Chain Governance and Industrialization, he has advised governments, businesses, and policymakers, driving sustainability and growth. During his tenure as Chairman of the Minerals Income Investment Fund (MIIF) and Labadi Beach Hotel, he led these institutions to global recognition for innovation and operational excellence. He is also the past chairman of the Public Procurement Authority.

A prolific author of over 90 publications, he is the creator of NyansaKasa (Words of Wisdom), a thought-provoking platform with over one million daily readers. Through his visionary leadership, Professor Boateng continues to inspire ethical governance, innovation, and youth empowerment, driving Africa toward a sustainable and inclusive future.